Vacation
2010
Is a vacation to Jamaica in hurricane season too dangerous?
I’m planning a vacation for my mom and I. We’re going to Jamaica the first week of September 2009. Is this too risky a move, in reference to hurricane season? My mom’s a little nervous about getting stuck on the island with a hurricane.
As you are aware, hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30. While no one can say you will or will not be hit by a hurricane during the period, odds are slim. With the number of storms predicted to be slighly less active, that reduces your chances some. Also, the second link, gives you a history of tracks. If you are scared to travel due to the fear of a hurricane, are you scarded to travel due to the chance of catching H1N1 (swine flu), a plane crash, someone breaking into your house while you are gone, getting sunburnt, etc. etc. etc.
Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University have lowered their prediction for the number of hurricanes they expect to hit the Atlantic Basin in 2009 to five, down from an April forecast of six hurricanes.
According to researchers Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, the revised forecast “is based on an extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data … the influence of El Niño conditions is implicit in these predictor fields.”
The forecast states that information obtained through May 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less active than the average 1950-2000 season. Gray and Klotzbach also predicted 2009 will have 11 named storms, 50 named storm days, 20 hurricane days, 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes, and 4 major hurricane days.
To view the entire forecast, visit
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/june2009/jun2009.pdf
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